Wednesday, May 08, 2024
Trump Gets A Stern Warning About The Gag Order
Judge Merchan issued a five page ruling on Trump's latest violation (his 10th) of the court's gag order. Trump was fined another $1000, but the judge noted that the fines were having no effect and threatened to jail Trump if he continues violating the order. And to make sure Trump understood him, the judge spoke directly to to him in open court. He said:
It appears that the $1,000 fines are not serving as a deterrent; therefore, going forward, this Court will have to consider a jail sanction if recommended.
Mr. Trump, it’s important to understand that the last thing I want to do is to put you in jail. You are the former president of the United States and possibly the next president, as well.
There are many reasons why incarceration is truly a last resort for me. To take that step would be disruptive to these proceedings, which I imagine you want to end as quickly as possible.
I also worry about the people who would have to execute that sanction: the court officers, the correction officers, the Secret Service detail, among others. I worry about them and about what would go into executing such a sanction. Of course, I’m also aware of the broader implications of such a sanction. The magnitude of such a decision is not one-sided.
But, at the end of the day, I have a job to do, and part of that job is to protect the dignity of the judicial system and compel respect. Your continued violations of this court’s lawful order threaten to interfere with the administration of justice in constant attacks which constitute a direct attack on the rule of law. I cannot allow that to continue. So, as much as I do not want to impose a jail sanction, and I have done everything I can to avoid doing so, I want you to understand that I will, if necessary and appropriate.
Tuesday, May 07, 2024
New ABC Poll Shows Biden With A Lead Among Voters
The charts above are from the ABC News / Ipsos Poll -- done between April 25th and 30th of. a nationwide sample of 2,260 adults, with a 2 point margin of error.
What Nations Think About China And The U.S.
The charts above are from the Gallup Poll. Approximately 1,000 adults were questioned in each country.
Monday, May 06, 2024
47% Of Trump Supporters Like Immunity For Presidents
The chart above is from the Economist / YouGov Poll - done between April 28th and 30th of a nationwide sample of 1,755 adults, with a 3 point margin of error.
Too Many Have Died - A Cease Fire Must Happen
Right after the attack on Israel by Hamas, the sympathies of Americans were solidly with Israel. In both November of 2023 and January of 2024, a 40% plurality of Americans said their sympathies lay with Israel.
But that was before the seemingly never ending attack by Israel on Gaza (and the blocking of food and medical supplies). Now tens of thousands of Gaza civilians have been killed (including 14,000 children, and famine is raging in Gaza.
That has caused American support for Israel to decline. In April of this year, sympathy for Israel has dropped by 9 points (to 31%), while sympathy for the Palestinians has climbed.
Netanyahu says he will continue the months-long war until Hamas is destroyed. That won't happen. Hamas can just hide and wait out the war (no matter how long it is). And that attack of Gaza civilians is just creating more Hamas recruits.
There must be a cease fire! And President Biden needs to cut off military aid to Israel to make that happen.
I would like to think a cease fire would lead to peace. But that won't happen until both Hamas and the Netanyahu governments are replaced by entities will to negotiate a two-state solution.
But a cease fire is better than more months (or years) of this war. And it is the first step in the hope for a peaceful future in the region.
NOTE - The figures above are from Economist / YouGov Polls done in November, January, and April. At least 1,500 adults were questioned in each, and the margin of error was about 3 points.
Sunday, May 05, 2024
Republicans Don't Care About The Suffering Of The Poor
The United States is still the richest country on the planet. And yet, there is a higher percentage of the U.S. population living in poverty than in most other developed nations. At least 11.5% of U.S. citizens live on poverty. That's over 37 million people.
Why is this true? It is because one of our political parties (Republicans) has pursued (and continues to pursue) economic policies that favor the rich, does nothing for the working and middle classes, and actually punishes the poor.
The U.S. government does offer some assistance to the poor, but Republicans have made sure that assistance is minimal and most are required to work to receive it. They tend to believe the poor are just lazy and must be forced to work. They are wrong.
Government assistance is onerous and embarrassing, and most poor people would rather work than receive the assistance. But that work needs to offer them a way out of poverty - not just insure they remain poor.
There are two simple ways to drastically reduce the number of poor people in the United States.
The first is to raise the minimum wage to a livable wage. The current minimum wage is only $7.25 an hour. That is about $15,080 a year. The poverty level designated by the government is shown in the chart below.
The current minimum wage is only $20 a year above the poverty line for a single person. It is far below it for a family of two or more. And many households only have one wage earner (like a single parent with children).
Raising the minimum wage to a livable wage (at least $15 an hour) would instantly lift many families out of poverty.
But one more thing also needs to be done. The government needs to help working class and poor families with childcare. It doesn't help to make more if most of it goes to pay for childcare. President Biden tried to get childcare included in the laws he got passed earlier (assuring no family would pay more that 7% of income for childcare), but it was killed by the GOP.
A higher minimum wage, coupled with help to pay for childcare, would lift millions out of poverty. And would save millions in government assistance. That saving could be used to raise assistance for those who cannot work, and would help to reduce the federal deficit.
This makes imminent sense, but the Republicans will have none of it. They still think the right economic policy is to help the rich and corporations save on taxes. They seem to have no interest in helping the poor, the working class, and only give minimal assistance to the middle class. They say helping the rich to have more helps everyone. That has never been true.
This nation is rich enough to eliminate most (or all) poverty in its borders. But it will never happen as long as the Republicans have the power to dictate economic policy.
Saturday, May 04, 2024
New Poll Shows Biden With A Two-Point Lead Over Trump
April's Unemployment Rate Rises Slightly To 3.9%
The Labor Department released its unemployment report for April on Friday. It showed the economy produced about 175,000 new jobs, and the official unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.9%. That marks the 27th month in a row that the unemployment rate was below 4% (and ties the record set in 1952-53).
Here are the relevant statistics for April of 2024:
SIZE OF THE CIVILIAN WORK FORCE:
167,982,000
NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED WORKERS:
6,492,000
OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE:
3.9%
DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN OF OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT:
Adult men...............3.6%
Adult women...............3.5%
Teens (16-19)...............11.7%
White...............3.5%
Black...............5.6%
Asian...............2.8%
Hispanic...............4.8%
Less than HS grad...............6.0%
HS graduate...............4.0%
Some college...............3.3%
Bachelor's deg. or more...............2.2%
NUMBER OF MARGINALLY-ATTACHED WORKERS (unemployed but not counted):
1,565,000
MORE REALISTIC NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED WORKERS (official + marginally-attached):
8,057,000
MORE REALISTIC UNEMPLOYMENT RATE:
4.79%
Friday, May 03, 2024
The 3 Democratic And 5 Republican Groups In The House
Far-Right Obstructionists
In a Congress largely defined by Republicans’ struggle to govern in harmony with their far-right flank, it’s no surprise that a cluster of hardline, obstructionist conservatives emerged as a cohesive voting cluster. The Far-Right Obstructionists cluster is made up of 39 members who are part of, or tend to be closely aligned with, the Freedom Caucus, including notable rabble-rousing Trump acolytes like Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz, who led the charge on ousting former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, and Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who’s threatening the same fate for Speaker Mike Johnson.
Far-Right Establishment
The Far-Right Establishment cluster is the largest of the GOP clusters and is stacked with party leaders. That’s notable given that it’s the second-most conservative group in the House.
The 55 members in this cluster are deep-red conservatives who, along with the Far-Right Obstructionists cluster, often broke with the rest of their party in their opposition to government spending bills. Of those who voted, less than 30 percent of members in this cluster supported each of two short-term funding extensions last fall, and only 15 percent supported the final funding package last month.
The 55 members in this cluster are deep-red conservatives who, along with the Far-Right Obstructionists cluster, often broke with the rest of their party in their opposition to government spending bills. Of those who voted, less than 30 percent of members in this cluster supported each of two short-term funding extensions last fall, and only 15 percent supported the final funding package last month.
Old Guard Republicans
The Old Guard Republicans cluster is the second-largest GOP cluster and lies in the ideological center of the five. This group of 50 members, along with the 55 in the slightly more conservative Far-Right Establishment cluster, makes up the core base of the House GOP. While most of the party’s leadership is in the latter cluster, a number of key leaders landed in this slightly more moderate group, including House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik and seven committee chairs.
Both groups are on solid footing when it comes to their conservative base, with members representing districts that Trump won in 2020 by an average of around 24 percentage points, but this group was less likely to support some more hardline proposals, including several that proposed significant spending cuts or limits on foreign aid to Ukraine and other countries.
Both groups are on solid footing when it comes to their conservative base, with members representing districts that Trump won in 2020 by an average of around 24 percentage points, but this group was less likely to support some more hardline proposals, including several that proposed significant spending cuts or limits on foreign aid to Ukraine and other countries.
Compromise Conservatives
The Compromise Conservatives cluster is the smallest of the GOP groups (32 members) and the second-most moderate on average, though there were some notable exceptions. Like the Moderate Republicans, they broke with more conservative clusters pretty frequently on hard-right messaging votes, supporting only 63 percent of partisan amendments from their own party.
However, this group exhibited slightly more conservative leanings on spending legislation and other traditionally libertarian priorities. Breaking with what we’d expect from a relatively moderate group, members in this cluster were actually less likely to vote for bipartisan spending bills like the annual defense policy bill and September Ukraine aid package than the Old Guard Republicans, who more often fell in line with conservative messaging votes but strongly supported funding bills.
However, this group exhibited slightly more conservative leanings on spending legislation and other traditionally libertarian priorities. Breaking with what we’d expect from a relatively moderate group, members in this cluster were actually less likely to vote for bipartisan spending bills like the annual defense policy bill and September Ukraine aid package than the Old Guard Republicans, who more often fell in line with conservative messaging votes but strongly supported funding bills.
Moderate Republicans
The Moderate Republicans cluster is a group of 39 members who break more often than others from the majority of their party on both substantive policy and partisan messaging, with the goal of finding consensus across the aisle. For example, 89 percentof the cluster voted in favor of a September 2023 bill to provide security assistance to Ukraine, compared to 38 percent of all other Republicans.
Unsurprisingly, Problem Solvers Caucus Co-chair Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania is in this group, along with 17 others from the caucus — two-thirds of the group’s GOP members. More than half (22 members) of the similarly pragmatic-minded caucus called the Republican Governance Group also aligns with this cluster, including the caucus’s chair, David Joyce of Ohio, who described the group in 2022 as “hellbent on breaking through Washington’s dysfunction” to “carve out a viable path forward for effective lawmaking.”
Unsurprisingly, Problem Solvers Caucus Co-chair Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania is in this group, along with 17 others from the caucus — two-thirds of the group’s GOP members. More than half (22 members) of the similarly pragmatic-minded caucus called the Republican Governance Group also aligns with this cluster, including the caucus’s chair, David Joyce of Ohio, who described the group in 2022 as “hellbent on breaking through Washington’s dysfunction” to “carve out a viable path forward for effective lawmaking.”
Moderate Democrats
The Moderate Democrats cluster is the smallest Democratic cluster. Seventy-five percent of its members won their seats during either the 2018 or 2022 cycles, making it also the newest Democratic cluster by average term length. The biggest exception to this is Rep. Marcy Kaptur of Ohio, who is the longest-serving woman in congressional history, having been elected to 21 terms.
This cluster is by far the most centrist of the Democratic wing. Last year, the Moderate Democrats voted yes on bipartisan amendments 92 percent of the time, 20 percent more frequently than their progressive colleagues, and they voted for Democratic amendments 11 percent less frequently than the rest of their party. They also voted yes more often on all types of passage, a signal that they were more willing than other Democrats to side with the Republican majority.
This cluster is by far the most centrist of the Democratic wing. Last year, the Moderate Democrats voted yes on bipartisan amendments 92 percent of the time, 20 percent more frequently than their progressive colleagues, and they voted for Democratic amendments 11 percent less frequently than the rest of their party. They also voted yes more often on all types of passage, a signal that they were more willing than other Democrats to side with the Republican majority.
Core Democrats
The Core Democrats cluster includes almost half of all Democrats in the House and all but one member of House Democratic leadership, including Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (Minority Whip Katherine Clark is in the Progressive Democrats cluster). This cluster is the largest with 100 members and — as you might suspect from the name — is characterized primarily by being squarely in the middle of all the different factions of the Democratic Party, both ideologically and during fights between the party’s insurgent and establishment wings. It contains members from every Democratic caucus that we tracked, including a majority of the New Democrat Coalition.
It’s also the longest-serving cluster in Congress, having been elected to an average of 6.7 terms. That’s partly because much of the aging Democratic establishment can be found here: Seven of the 10 longest-serving Democrats currently in the House are part of this cluster. This older guard contains lots of workhorses, who often stay out of the high-profile clashes between the progressive and moderate wings of their party.
It’s also the longest-serving cluster in Congress, having been elected to an average of 6.7 terms. That’s partly because much of the aging Democratic establishment can be found here: Seven of the 10 longest-serving Democrats currently in the House are part of this cluster. This older guard contains lots of workhorses, who often stay out of the high-profile clashes between the progressive and moderate wings of their party.
Progressive Democrats
The Progressive Democrats cluster includes, naturally, 68 of the most progressive members in Congress, including every member of The Squad. Fittingly, almost every member of this cluster is part of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, but there were still some surprises to be found. One was that Rep. Debbie Dingell of Michigan, a member of the Problem Solvers Caucus, was in this cluster. This was unexpected considering the Progressive Democrats were about 20 percent less likely to vote yes on bipartisan amendments than the other two Democratic clusters, and were also the most anti-establishment of the Democratic clusters, with an average score of -0.31 on the second dimension of DW-NOMINATE.6 And it’s true that Dingell broke with her cluster on a couple of votes where it otherwise had strong consensus. But she still ended up agreeing with the Progressive Democrats more than the average member of the cluster, voting with them over 98 percent of the time,7 including on high-priority issues like criminal justice reform and environmental protection.
Another surprise: while many members of this cluster have made headlines for unseating long-serving representatives in primaries over the last several years, this cluster is actually one of the longest-tenured in the House, having been elected to an average of 6.3 terms. That’s due to the presence of progressive stalwarts like Rep. Maxine Waters of California, the longest-serving member of this cluster, who has been elected to 17 terms.
Another surprise: while many members of this cluster have made headlines for unseating long-serving representatives in primaries over the last several years, this cluster is actually one of the longest-tenured in the House, having been elected to an average of 6.3 terms. That’s due to the presence of progressive stalwarts like Rep. Maxine Waters of California, the longest-serving member of this cluster, who has been elected to 17 terms.
About 208,000 Workers Filed For Unemployment Last Week
The Labor Department released its weekly unemployment report on Thursday. It showed that about 208,000 workers filed for unemployment benefits in the week ending on April 27th. Here is the official Labor Department statement:
In the week ending April 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 208,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 207,000 to 208,000. The 4-week moving average was 210,000, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 213,250 to 213,500.
Marjorie Taylor Greene Is About To Embarrass Herself
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Georgia) thinks she is a leader in the current Congress. And she is the self-appointed voice of the radical right in it.
She was in the tiny group of GOP radicals that ousted Speaker Kevin McCarthy. That resulted in a period of time when Congress was in chaos because the Republicans couldn't agree on a new Speaker. The radical fringe finally convinced other Republicans to agree to accept one of their own, and Mike Johnson became Speaker.
Greene evidently thought with a radical in the Speaker's chair, she and other radicals could force Congress to go along with their own crazy ideas Like shutting down the government and cutting off aid to Ukraine).
Greene was wrong. While Johnson is on the far right, he was not willing to shut down the government or cut off aid to Ukraine. To keep the government open and send needed aid to Ukraine, he reached out to Democrats - and Democrats, combined with many Republicans, passed both bills.
Greene blew her top, and filed a motion to kick Johnson out of the speakership. But she didn't ask for a vote, wanting to hold that possibility over his head to force him to meet her demands.She thought she was in control. She was wrong again.
Most Republicans are unhappy with her action, and don't want another vote on the Speaker. They know it would just create more chaos for Congress and their party.
Last week, I said Democrats should stay out of this GOP fight, and should just vote "present" on a vote to oust the Speaker. While Johnson is not a good Speaker, we don't need more chaos in Congress.
But Hakeem Jeffries (Democratic Minority Leader) had a better idea. He said if Marjorie Taylor Green ask for a vote to oust the Speaker, Democrats would move to table her request. If the motion to table won a majority vote, Greene's motion would not even get a vote.
The motion to table would win by a landslide (with most Republicans and all Democrats voting for it. I doubt if Greene can expect more than a dozen votes in her favor. She is about to be embarrassed, and shown just how little power she has in this Congress.
Most Republicans (and all Democrats) are sick of her insane kind of political theater!
Thursday, May 02, 2024
Trump Makes No Secret Of His Terrible Agenda
Donald Trump wants to do some really bad things if he is re-elected. Axios.com points outs the ten most worrying things from Trump's interview with Time Magazine:
Maybe We Should Listen To The Protesters This Time
In the late 1960's and early 1970's, protests broke out in colleges across the nation. The students were protesting the Vietnam War.
There was an immediate backlash from many in the country. The protesters were label as "communists", "radicals", and "Anti-American". While the protests were mostly peaceful, the backlash was not. College administrations invited police on campus to attack and remove the students, and they were also attacked by anti-protest demonstrators.
But history have proven the student protesters were right. The Vietnam War is now viewed as a bad mistake which took the lives of far too many U.S. soldiers and Vietnamese civilians.
Now student protests are again happening in colleges across the nation. This time they are protesting the way the Israeli government is waging war in Gaza (and U.S. government support for it). They are protesting the tens of thousands of civilians killed, and the lack of food, shelter, and medicine allowed to reach those civilians.
And again, there is a backlash to the protests. This time the accusation is that the protesters are being "antisemitic". They aren't. It is not antisemitic to oppose the actions of the Israeli government (anymore than it is wrong to oppose the Russian government for invading Ukraine).
And once again, college administrations are inviting the police onto their campuses - and the violence is mainly done by the police and anti-protest demonstrators.
We should react differently this time. Instead of demonizing the protesters, maybe we should listen to them. Maybe they are right. There is a good chance that will be the judgement of history.
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