After a longer than expected period of absence, I'm returning with a new project of mine: proFXsignals.com.

The website is under construction right now, but when it will be ready, it will be the home for free forex signals (really!), my managed accounts business and this blog (in a whole new and much better form).

Wanna be the first to know?

Here's a great quote from Al Gore's documentary, An Inconvenient Truth (you know, it just won two Oscars - maybe you should see it too).

Final misconception: if we accept that this problem is real, maybe it's just too big to do anything about. And you know, there are a lot of people who go straight from denial to despair without pausing on the intermediate step of actually doing something about the problem, and that's what I'd like to finish with, the fact that we already know everything we need to know to effectively address this problem.

Al Gore

Now, am I the only one seeing the relation between this quote and trading? :)

Don't just sit there watching your losing position get bigger and bigger, denying the fact that you took a wrong decision. You don't need a margin call to tell you that you were wrong. You can accept the loss as it is and do something about it - close the trade, take a deep breath and rethink.

Have a great weekend!

A great article on tradin psychology (mostly emotion control) from Investopedia. Thanks for the link, Rich.

Here's a part of the article:

Strategies to Remove Barriers
No matter what your barriers might be, it is important to put together an action-oriented plan to remove them. Here are seven steps you can take to remove these barriers to your investing success:

1. Learn to monitor your performance. Measuring your performance creates a track record of what has worked and what has not. This allows you to identify problems that you repeat. While some investors capture a great amount of detail, at a minimum, you should document the overall market trend, the sector trend, the rationale for making the trade, the exit target and the trailing stop. Do this for each buy (or short) as well as sell (or cover). This record will be very useful to assess your investing activities over time and can be used to identify what barriers you are encountering that hinder your success. (Keep reading on this subject in Lessons From A Trader's Diary.)
   
   
2. Once you have measured your behavior, you can identify what you want to change. Examine your past trading activity and look for patterns that point to barriers to success. Do you impulsively buy the next hot stock without doing your homework? Does your rationale for buying the stock prove to be wrong most of the time? The key is to identify the investing behavior that hinders your performance.
   
   
3. Stay focused on what you need to change. Changing one's behavior requires a steadfast focus on what you seek to change. Like any effort to change behavior, you must remain focused on the actions you take to reinforce the investing behavior you wish to have. If you feel you are not focused on how to change your behavior, then take a break from your investing until you have regained your focus.
   
   
4. Identify how you will deal with losses. Losses are a part of investing. Learning how to deal with them is one of the cornerstones of successful investing behavior. It starts with predefining what your loss looks like through your stop loss and rationale for the trade. Once this criterion is met, you take the loss and move on. Confronting and accepting a loss is a trading skill that is an essential behavior. By making the execution of a losing trade an automatic process in your trading strategy, you remove the emotion that comes from a loss. This opens you up to the next opportunity without fear. (To learn more, read Tales From The Trenches: Hindsight Is 20/20.)
   
   
5. Become an expert at one investing strategy. There are many ways to assess the market and select stocks that offer good investment opportunities. Too often, investors become overwhelmed with all the information that is available. Instead of trying to understand every perspective on a stock, it is best to get to know one proven investing strategy. While you might miss some opportunities, you will gain confidence in your investing approach. The knowledge you gain will form a solid base for your investing. Later, when you have become an expert in this approach, you can expand your knowledge base by adding a new approach that compliments your proven strategy. (To learn about investment strategies, see Introduction To Fundamental Analysis and Basics Of Technical Analysis.)
   
   
6. Learn to think in probabilities. Because the market is in perpetual motion, it places the investor in the position to continually assess the risk-reward of each opportunity. You can't move the market, so you need to assess what is the greatest possibility that will move the market, key sectors and the stocks you are watching. Assessing what is most likely to happen in terms of probabilities will help you make valid investing judgments.
   
   
7. Learn to be objective. Many investors want to believe that the market will do what they think it should do, rather than what it actually does. Any limits you place on the market will usually turn out to be wrong. The market does what the market does. Investors are best served if they maintain an objective perspective. If you are objective, then you will:
   
   1. Not feel pressured to act quickly
   2. Not be afraid to make an investment decision
   3. Not force your opinion on the market, but rather sense what the market is trying to tell you

Conclusion
Removing your barriers to investing success is an ongoing process. By following a defined plan, you can identify and formulate a program to remove the barriers that keep you from achieving success as an investor.

Here you have John Putman's analysis for the Yen:

Yen Outlook: Mixed

Cyclical Studies: Bullish
Price Action: Bearish

The Yen's rapid decline yesterday has pushed it through linear support and deep into relative support. Continued pressure on the currency or a period of stagnation is likely into the Asian Session

Underlying Outlook:

USD/JPY: If the bearish trend continues to emerge I'd look for a test of 117.46/30 with an eventual grind towards 116.29.

Right now the pair is fighting resistane at 118.52 and if we cycle ehigher and take this out I'd target 120.06 on an eventual retracement.

EUR/JPY: On a break below 155.72 look for an eventual test of 154.00153.50. A reversal from here wuold target 158.13

GBP/JPY: looking much for the pair to stay pinned in he next session between 234.00 & 230.62. A break above would target 236.51 a break below; 228.04

CHF/JPY: Looking like the first best bet for a cyclical move higher, a bounce out of current levels to 97.97 is favored here.

Now that the Bank of Japan has proven their independence with a 25bp hike, the central bank has expressed that rates will remain low for quite a while:

• Toshihiko Fukui, Bank of Japan Governor
  “At this point in time we are completely open about what the future monetary policy should be like specifically. But our basic view is that, assuming the economy continues to expand smoothly under price stability, making gradual adjustments to interest rate levels in line with economic and price developments, while keeping accommodative monetary conditions backed by very low interest rates for now, is the key to supporting sustained growth.” – February 23, 2007.
  “The global economy is expanding, with growth spreading to more regions. We expect the Japanese economy to show solid growth.” – February 22, 2007
  “I sometime hear concerns that the falling savings rate may weaken the potential growth rate of the Japanese economy, but if accumulated financial assets play an effective role as risk money, they can help boost the growth rate even when the savings rate is low.” – February 26, 2007
• Koji Omi, Japanese Finance Minister
  “We've been saying all along that we hope the Bank of Japan supports the economy through monetary policy, so that Japan's economic recovery is sustained. But monetary policy issues, including specific interest rate levels, are up to the bank (to decide). I respect the decision it made at its policy-setting meeting.” – February 23, 2007
• Hiroko Ota, Japanese Economics Minister
  “I think the timing of the next rate hike will depend on economic conditions. Since the BOJ has said that it will maintain very accommodative monetary conditions, I expect the Bank to make the (next hike) decision in line with this stance.” – February 23, 2007

Here you have today's chart, technical and fundamental analysis, plus my forecast and recommended trade.

Technical view:
EUR/USD is at a major resistance zone (1.3189). Break possibility exists here, but I won't be betting on that today because of the oversold status of the currency.

Fundamental view:
A day with no major releases awaits for us, forex traders. Low volatility expected and no unexpected moves
Fed Governor Bies will speak at 2:30GMT, that might generate a bit of aggressive price movement.

Trading advice for today, 26 February 2007:
I'm expecting a downtrend today because of the oversold condition.

Trade suggestion:
Took a short (sold) EUR/USD @ 1.3190 with SL @ 1.3220 & TP @ 1.3130-1.3140.

Is there something wrong with me or the guys at tradingmarkets.com set up a contest where Playboy Models pick stocks?

Well, the returns aren't that impressing...

Playboy Models 2006 Return: +8.56%
S&P 500 2006 Return: +13.62%

...but their pictures are :)