October 2008 Marin Real Estate News

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes rose 36.1% year-over-year. Year-to-date, home sales are down 21.6%.
Prices dropped last month with the median price down 3.6% from August, and it was off 16.3% compared to last September. The average price lost 2.5%, a year-over-year decline of 20.7%.

Condo sales were strong last month, up 145.5% year-over-year. The median price for condos in Marin County fell 16.1% from August, a drop of 49.4% compared to September 2007.

Monthly Statistics
Complete monthly sales statistics for Marin County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.

Read the entire newsletter here:
October 2008 Marin Real Estate News

December 2007 Newsletter

I hope this holiday season finds you and your family healthy and happy.

November sales of existing single-family homes in the nine-county region plummeted 39.4 percent, from 5,308 last year to 3,217 this year.

A major reason sales are sluggish despite falling prices in many regions is that it remains difficult to qualify for or afford jumbo loans, still necessary for average home shoppers in the pricey Bay Area. Since summer, when credit rules started getting stricter, fewer lenders are offering financing for more than the $417,000 conforming amount, and those that do are charging more or tightening lending standards. Buyers used jumbo loans for 44.1 percent of home purchases last month, compared with an average of 62 percent for the first seven months of the year, DataQuick said.

In Marin the story is slightly more robust than the majority of the SF Bay area, which is typical of our area which is a bit insulated from the downturn. Single Family Home sales for November in the 13 main cities that we track.

The same story this month as the last where Novato and San Rafael are the hardest hit areas relative to the rest of Marin. Condominiums in Novato have taken a 15-20 percent decline during 2007 and Single family homes about 10=12%. If you do not have to sell because of relocation or financial issues my recommendation is to hold on for the next 6 months.

I have not calculated the average days on market for this summary for one reason and one reason alone. The average days on market (DOM) per the Marin Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS) is NOT calculated correctly. It does not take into account a property that has been on the market with multiple brokers and those that have been removed for 30 days and then relisted. Once this is done it starts the days on market to ZERO. I will be doing an individual report on the actual DOM per community but it is very time intensive as the only way to accurately calculate the number is to look at the property history on each individual property. Since we have 659 single family homes on the market that will take a while. I promise to get you that information for the yearend report.

The median price for single-family, re-sale homes in Marin County was up 7.5% in November compared to last year. The average price was up 10.3%.

Home sales were flat in November at 137 units. Year-over-year, home sales were off 20.8%. Year-to-date, home sales are down 6.9%.

The median price for condos gained 6.0% to $600,000 from October, and it was up 20%, year-over-year. The average price rose 20.7% to $779,309, setting a new record high. Year-over-year, the average price was up 35.2%. Condo sales were up 16.7% from October, but were off 22.2% year-over-year. Year-to-date, condo sales are down 19.4%.

To read the entire newsletter go to: December newsletter

November Marin Real Estate News

MARIN HOME SALES STATISTICS

Recent homes sales even though increasing from prior months are still dismal compared to what we have seen in the 5 previous years. There are thirteen towns in the county that we track and all of them are not showing signs of robust home sales. Sales for October in all of the 13 cities and the Total number of homes listed for sale are as follows:

The number of homes on the market in San Rafael and Novato account for 53% of the total homes actively being markets for sale. The activities in these two areas are extremely low with the percent in contract at 24% for San Rafael and 15.6% for Novato. The Novato percent in contract is one of the lowest I have seen in 5 years. This accounts for some of the turmoil in the Novato market.

On a general note in Marin County, the widening of 101 will be complete in 2008, adding four lanes from the Golden Gate Bridge to Novato. Once this is complete it will open up lots of the congestion on the freeway that is being experienced due to the construction. Many buyers might rethink buying in outlying areas such as Novato if the commute is appreciably easier. Only time will tell.

Home sales bounced back in October from a dismal September, due to the panic in the credit markets. Sales of single-family, re-sale homes rose 26.9% from the month before, but were down 32.5% year-over-year. Year-to-date, home sales are down 5.6%.

The median price for single-family, re-sale homes in Marin County rose 0.7% in October, compared to the month before, up 7.7% year-over-year. The average price fell 10.8% from the new record set in September. Year-over-year, the average price was up 14.1%.

The median price for condos lost 10.6% to $565,000, again, after setting a new record the month before, and it was up 3%, year-over-year. The average price fell 8.3% to $645,813, up 10.5% compared to October 2006. Condo sales were up 36.4% from September, and off 38.8% year-over-year. Year-to-date, condo sales are down 19.1%.

Read the entire newsletter: November Newsletter

October Marin Real Estate News

As expected, the credit crunch had a big impact on sales last month. Sales of single-family, re-sale homes fell 39.3% from the month before, and were off 33.3% year-over-year. Year-to-date, home sales are down 2.2%. We expect sales to be slow this month, then start to recover at the end of the quarter as the credit crunch is alleviated.

The median price for single-family, re-sale homes in Marin County fell 3.3% in September, compared to the month before, up 14% year-over-year. The average price rose 7.8% to set a new record, and was up 22.6% year-over-year.

The median price for condos soared 29% to $632,000, a new record, and was up 14.8%, year-over-year. The average price rose 11.2% to $704,114, up 18.4% compared to September 2006. With only 22 condos sold last month, these prices are certainly anomalous. Condo sales were down 52.2% from August, and off 60.7% year-over-year. Year-to-date, condo sales are off 17.1%.

Prices have not really declined here in Marin. What has declined is the number of sales as well as the percentage of homes under contract. As you can see from the numbers the average sales price has increased over the prior month as well as the prior year. The strongest segment of the market is the "luxury Market" those homes over $2 million. Buyers are still making offers on good properties.

The percentage of listed home in contract, "Pending listed ratio" is a good indication of the strength of each market. Anything between a 20%-25% ratio bodes a balanced market where we have an equal number of buyers and sellers. Anything less than 20% is pushing towards a buyer's market. As you can see from the numbers Marin is in a Buyer's market (see chart below), and has been there for at least the past 6 months. It is important to keep in mind that real estate in Marin is location specific, and you will need to drill down to each market segment before you draw a broad conclusion as some areas continue to have strength especially those towns in southern Marin with good school districts.

Buyers right now have the upper hand but if rates continue to move downward and the credit markets stabilize then the market will become more competitive for buyers. If you are pre-approved for a loan and are ready to make an offer now is as good a time as any to step in and test the waters.

Although the credit crunch is having an effect on home sales, there is money available at reasonable rates from portfolio lenders. These are lenders that loan their own money and do not bundle up the loans for re-sale on Wall Street. Some examples are ING, local credit unions, and some small local business banks. Also, Countrywide, and some of the bigger banks, are planning to keep more of their loans in-house.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or for an evaluation of your home's worth, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for Marin County are on my website. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county. Just email me!

Read the entire October Marin Real Estate Newsletter October Newsletter

September Marin Real Estate News

As always, it’s important to view the individual city and price range stats – see the chart below for more details.

For the first time the overall Marin Home Sales market is in a “Strong Buyers” Market.

The median price for single-family, re-sale homes in Marin County rose 6.6% in August, compared to the month before, up 8% year-over-year. The average price rose 2.5%, up 14.2% year-over-year.

Sales of single-family homes were down 12.3% from July, and were off 26.4% year-over-year. Year-to-date, home sales are up 1.2%. Marin is the only county in the Bay Area with higher home sales this year than last.

The median price for condos fell 16.9% to $490,000, a year-over-year drop of 10.7%. The average price lost 6.4% to $633,204, up 6.4% compared to August 2006. Condo sales rose 2.2% from July, but were down 14.8% year-over-year. Year-to-date, condo sales are off 11.4%.

August is a vacation month and home sales typically are slower than in other months. The activity since Labor Day shows that buyer's are in the market.

As you can see from the summary numbers in the report, median prices rose but the number of units sold are down over 26% from the prior year. This is a sign of uncertainty. Many sellers have pulled their homes off the market and are waiting for the market to stabilize. Many buyers are having an issue with the increased mortgage rates and are waiting for the Fed to lower the discount rate. I will give everyone an update at the end of the month. As always, drop me an email with any questions or call me at 415-250-4929.

I’m always searching for ways to bring my clients and readers more local real estate statistics. I’m pleased to announce the launch of my new Marin home Sales Statistics page. To view, go to: Marin Real Estate Statistics.

If you know of anyone who would like to receive this monthly newsletter or is thinking of either buying or selling a home please let me know. I’d love your referrals!

MARIN HOME SALES DROP, BUT MEDIAN PRICE IS UP

Marin's median home price hit the $1 million mark again last month, but sales of homes slid more than 32 percent compared with this time last year, a real estate research firm reported Thursday.

August's median price for single-family homes rose 8.7 percent from August 2006, when the median price was $920,000. The median price for condominiums in Marin last month - $520,000 - dropped 4.8 percent from $546,500 in August 2006.

The rise in the median - which has hit the $1 million mark three times this year - combined with the decline in volume signals a stable luxury market making up for the lagging low end that has been most affected by the mortgage meltdown, analysts said.

Yet to fully play out is the impact tighter lending practices, including restrictions this summer on jumbo loans over $417,000, have had on markets such as Marin, DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage said.

In Marin, 76.9 percent of borrowers took out jumbo loans in August. In the last week of the month, that number dropped to 69.1 percent, LePage said. "You can say that the jumbo situation had some impact on sales," he said. "It was not a large one - it was noticeable in the last week of the month. What's unclear is if this is the beginning of a trend."

Bay Area homes sold at the slowest pace in 15 years last month as market uncertainty intensified, forcing more buyers, sellers and lenders to the sidelines. Prices remained flat at the regional level but there were local variations, a real estate information service reported.

A total of 7,299 new and resale houses and condos were sold in the nine-county Bay Area in August. That was down 1.7 percent from 7,423 in July, and down 24.9 percent from 9,713 for August a year ago, according to DataQuick Information Systems.

Sales have decreased on a year-over-year basis the last 31 months. Sales last month were the lowest for any August since 1992 when 6,688 homes were sold. The strongest August in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988, was in 2004 when 13,940 homes were sold. The August average is 10,170.

"Homes in the Bay Area are more expensive than elsewhere and most of them are financed with 'jumbo' mortgages. The turbulence in the mortgage markets has made it more difficult to get this type of financing. The question is: does this pull the plug on some market activity, or does it just slow things down? We won't know the answer for a few months," said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick president.

The median price paid for a Bay Area home was $655,000 last month. That was down 1.5 percent from the June and July peak of $665,000, and up 4.0 percent from $630,000 for August a year ago. The median was down in Solano, Sonoma and Napa counties and flat or up in the other counties.

Foreclosure resales accounted for 4.8 percent of August's sales activity, up from 4.5 percent in July, and up from 1.2 percent in August of last year. Foreclosure resales do not yet have a regional effect on prices.

Other indicators of market distress continue to move in different directions. Financing with adjustable-rate mortgages is flat, financing with multiple mortgages has declined significantly. Down payment sizes are stable, flipping rates and non-owner occupied buying activity is flat, DataQuick reported.

To read the entire September newsletter go to: September Real Estate Newsletter

Find out more great info on Marin Real Estate: www.bayarearealestatesales.com

July Marin Real Estate News

Home prices are continuing the move upward and sales volume is moving slightly lower as buyers are being very particular on what they will buy in this environment. There are some areas that are holding up quite well under any perceived pressure for lower prices, those being Larkspur, Greenbrae, Mill Valley and Corte Madera. We have seen some record prices for homes sold in Corte Madera in the last month. 7 Grace Court sold for $3.3 Million; a wonderful 5 Bedroom 3 bath home on one half acre built in 2002. This was the second highest sale since a $3.6 Million home on Verona Place sold in May 2007.

The chart below shows a combination of Single Family Residences combined with condos. As the condo market has slowed down dramatically, it shows the overall market as a buyers market. When you break out the Single Family Residences, however, the market is closer to a balanced market.

As of July 11 there were 967 Single Family Homes on the market. Of those 252 are in contract which is 26% of the total. That leaves 715 homes on the market and available for buyers to enter into contracts. This overall calculates as a balanced/Buyers market. If you look at City by City you can see that Mill Valley is at 37%, Corte Madera at 52% and Greenbrae at 42%. Some of the lagging communities in % in contract are San Rafael at 24%, Sausalito at 25% and Novato at 23%. Remember that real estate in Marin is Community specific so you must look at the details to ascertain the Real Estate heath of each community.

The median price for single-family, re-sale homes in Marin County rose 12.1% in June, compared to the month before, and set a new record of $1,160,000. This is 7.9% higher than last June. The average price gained 0.2%, up 0.8% year-over-year.

Sales of single-family homes were down 7.1% from May, off 9% year-over-year. Year-to-date, home sales are outpacing last year's rate. Marin is the only county in the Bay Area with higher home sales this year than last.

The median price for condos rose 1.8% to $595,000, a year-over-year gain of 2.2%. The average price gained 1.5% to $644,772, down 0.2% compared to June 2006. Condo sales dropped 1.7% from May, and were down 3.3% year-over-year.

As always, it's important to view the individual city and price range stats - see the chart below for more details.

To see the entire newsletter go to: July Marin Real Estate News

June Marin Real Estate News

It’s hard to believe that the year is just about half over. Summer solstice (the longest day-light day of the year) was just last week. I hope that you and your family are having a wonderful 2007 so far and are enjoying the start of summer.

The median price for single-family, re-sale homes in Marin County fell 0.2% in May from the record set in April. This is 10.1% higher than last May. The average price fell 4.2% from April, up 15.4% year-over-year. Sales of single-family homes were up 13.2% from April, an increase of 16.5% year-over-year.

The median price for condos rose 6.4% to $584,500, a year-over-year gain of 9.8%. The average price gained 7.4% to $635,377, up 4.5% compared to May 2006. Condo sales were up 42.9% from April, and were up 3.4% year-over-year.

These statistics show how many homes are available for sale in Marin, and of those how many are currently in contract (either pending or contingent. For the 9th month in a row, the Marin overall real estate market is in a “Buyers Market.”

As always, it’s important to view the individual city and price range stats for more details:

Although the overall market shows that it’s a “Buyers Market’: Fairfax and Greenbrae are in a “Sellers Market,” and Larkspur and Mll Valley are in a “Balanced Market.” The remainder Marin towns are all in varying levels of “Buyers Markets.” It is very interesting that homes priced from $750,000 to $1.5M are all hovering very close to a Balanced Market.

My take on the current market: The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or for an evaluation of your home's worth, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, just let me know.

I think that the general consensus among agents currently is that there is a lack of inventory. Interest rates have been very good and there are buyers ready to purchase homes, but there is still a lack of homes that are finished and priced correctly. Multiple offers are becoming commonplace again, especially in popular walk-to-town areas like: Mill valley, Larkspur, Fairfax San Anselmo and San Rafael.

If you are looking to purchase a home, it’s important that you be ready with a pre-approval letter so that you can be ready if the home that fits your requirements comes on the market. Buyers once again have to forgo some of their “must-haves” and make compromises for what they are looking for.

MY ADVICE?

For buyers, the same as last month: prime property is selling quickly and, in many instances, with multiple offers. Buyers need to be prepared to make an offer immediately on prime property. That means you need to have a loan in place. For more information about buying in a multiple offer situation, call me.

For sellers, where your home is, the condition and what segment of the market it's in, entry-level, move-up or million plus, are the determining factors in whether or not you will be able to sell your home quickly and for a good price. Demand in the entry-level market has fallen, which will impact the move-up market. The million dollar plus market is pretty much immune to the sub-prime mortgage tightening.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or for an evaluation of your home's worth, call me. If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu above.

I’m always searching for ways to bring my clients and readers more local real estate statistics. I’m pleased to announce the launch of my new Marin home Sales Statistics page. To view, go to: Marin Real Estate Statistics.

If you know of anyone who would like to receive this monthly newsletter or is thinking of either buying or selling a home please let me know. I’d love your referrals!

To read the entire June Marin Real Estate Newsletter, go to: June Marin Real Estate News