Do you have some Caribbean hurricane news? Caribbean residents are encouraged to send in your comments and observations for publication here - or - you can use the comments in the current posts to give us your updates.
Enter an email address to subscrbe to our Tropical Storm & Hurricane alerts:
..until the end of this season. It has been another eventful one unfortunately - especially for Cuba and the Turks & Caicos, among others. Things are quiet today - so let's hope the next two weeks play out that way also. TGIF.
Cuba and atmospheric conditions have brought Paloma to an end:
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PALOMA...IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA AND ANDROS ISLAND. RE-DEVELOPENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
The Cayman Islands are in the path of Paloma - from the AP:
GEORGE TOWN, Cayman Islands (AP) -- Late-season Hurricane Paloma strengthened into a Category 2 storm as it lashed the Cayman Islands with wind and rain Friday, knocking down trees and signs.
Lights flickered across Grand Cayman, where tourists gathered on balconies and beaches to watch the storm whip up 10-foot (3-meter) waves.
The hurricane's center was expected to pass near Grand Cayman during the night or early Saturday, then gain strength and punch a Cuba already suffering from billions of dollars in damage from two previous hurricanes this season.
Cuban official newspaper Granma, recalling past late-season hurricanes such as a 1932 storm that killed about 3,000 people, said Paloma poses "a potential danger for the island." The storm could grow into a Category 3 hurricane with winds of at least 111 mph (179 kph) as it heads toward Cuba's midsection, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
The Cayman Islands government asked all hotels to remove guests from the ground and first floors. Nearly 40 people were already staying in the islands' seven shelters.
Disney Changes Itinerary to Avoid Hurricane Paloma
Disney Cruise Line is altering the itinerary of the Disney Magic ship in order to avoid potentially dangerous weather conditions as a result of Hurricane Paloma. You can find the changes here.
HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008 400 PM EST FRI NOV 07 2008
AS IT HAS DONE SINCE THE FIRST ADVISORY...PALOMA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...AND NOW APPEARS TO BE DOING SO AT A QUICKER PACE. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT AN EYE IS BECOMING BETTER-DEFINED WITH COLD CLOUD TOPS IN THE EYEWALL. AIR FORCE AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANES HAVE BEEN FLYING THROUGH THE HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE FOUND PEAK 10000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 106 KT...SFMR WINDS OF 88 KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 967 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90 KT...AND HIGHER WINDS WILL SURELY BE FOUND IN SHORT ORDER. BARRING AN EYEWALL CYCLE...PALOMA WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY UNTIL THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES TOMORROW. THEREAFTER... STEADY WEAKENING DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE SHEAR IS FORECAST UP UNTIL A LANDFALL IN CUBA. A MORE RAPID WEAKENING WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AFTER THE CYCLONE MAKES LANDFALL IN CUBA. EXTREMELY HIGH SHEAR OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SHOULD WEAKEN THE STORM QUICKLY...PERHAPS EVEN FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES YIELD A MOTION OF ABOUT 020/5...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST APPEARS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. TRACK MODELS ARE REASONABLY CLUSTERED ON A TRACK THROUGH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TOWARD CENTRAL CUBA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON WHAT HAPPENS TO PALOMA IN THE LONGER-TERM. HOWEVER...I'M STARTING TO PUT MORE WEIGHT ON THE SOLUTION THAT SUGGESTS THE HURRICANE WILL RAPIDLY SHEAR APART NORTH OF CUBA...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BEING LEFT BEHIND AND MOVING SLOWLY NEAR THE BAHAMAS. THE GFDL...GFS...AND HWRF...THE FASTER MODELS FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...HAVE NOW SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY AND ACTUALLY SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING WESTWARD AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS THE SYSTEM EITHER MOVING SLOWLY OR MOVING WESTWARD IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5...AND COULD BE ADJUSTED EVEN FARTHER WEST IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE. HOWEVER...AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE PROBABLY WON'T BE MUCH LEFT OF PALOMA IF IT MAKES THAT WESTWARD TURN DUE TO THE EXTREMELY HIGH SHEAR.
HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM EST FRI NOV 07 2008
REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE PALOMA IS STRENGTHENING. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO AT LEAST 981 MB...AND THERE ARE MULTIPLE SFMR AND DROPSONDE ESTIMATES OF 65-70 KT SURFACE WINDS AROUND THE 16 N MI WIDE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT...AND THIS MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE. WHILE THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST...ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THE HURRICANE IS EXPERIENCING ABOUT 10 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Paloma strengthened over the Caribbean and may become a Category 3 storm before hitting Cuba, which is still recovering from hurricanes Ike and Gustav.
Paloma's maximum sustained winds increased to 130 kilometers (80 miles) per hour, from 120 kph earlier today, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said in an advisory on its Web site just before 7 a.m. Miami time. The system, which is forecast to continue strengthening, was about 395 kilometers (245 miles) west of Montego Bay, Jamaica, and moving north at 13 kph.
"On the forecast track, the center of Paloma will pass near the Cayman Islands late Friday or early Saturday," before hitting Cuba, the center said. Additional "strengthening is likely and Paloma is expected to become a Category 2 hurricane later today and possibly reach Category 3 intensity by Saturday."
A Category 3 storm has winds of between 178 and 209 kph, the third strongest on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale of intensity. As much as 12 inches (30 centimeters) of rain may fall on the Caymans, the center said.
HURRICANE PALOMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008 700 PM EST THU NOV 06 2008
CORRECTED HURRICANE STATUS IN LOCATION PARAGRAPH
...PALOMA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
INTERESTS IN CUBA AND JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 700 PM EST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES...270 KM...SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 280 MILES...450 KM ...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.
PALOMA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MOST OF DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FORECAST TO OCCUR LATE FRIDAY AND ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PALOMA IS NOW A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. PALOMA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY ORGANIZE AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST HOUR...NOAA BUOY 42057 LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED A ONE-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 71 MPH...115 KM/HR AND A WIND GUST TO 78 MPH...126 KM/HR.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY DATA FROM THE NEARBY NOAA BUOY IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
REPEATING THE 700 PM EST POSITION...16.9 N...81.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM EST.
This season is not going to end quietly I guess - we give you Tropical Storm PALOMA:
TROPICAL STORM PALOMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008 1500 UTC THU NOV 06 2008
AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO LIMON HONDURAS. THIS WATCH COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
INTERESTS IN CUBA AND JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 82.3W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT
The tropics are relatively quiet as the end of October nears. Hurricane season runs until the end of November, but the odds for a major storm this time of year greatly decrease:
"The Atlantic basin shows a very peaked season from August through October, with 78% of the tropical storm days, 87% of the minor (Saffir-Simpson Scale categories 1 and 2) hurricane days, and 96% of the major (Saffir-Simpson Scale categories 3, 4 and 5) hurricane days occurring then (Landsea 1993). Maximum activity is in early to mid September. Once in a few years there may be a tropical cyclone occurring "out of season" - primarily in May or December."
As Hurricane Omar has now passed over the Territory, we are thankful to report that the impact to our islands has been minimal.
On St. Croix, crews are now working to ensure that power is restored to all areas of the island and remove debris from roads. The island's two major highways are now open and smaller roadways are being cleared. No major damage has been reported by the hotel properties on St. Croix.
No major power outages or damages have been reported on St. John or St. Thomas and minor debris will be cleared from the roads by early afternoon.
The Territory's two major airports are open and fully operational, and we expect commercial traffic to resume this afternoon.
The U.S. Virgin Islands Department of Tourism continues to take all appropriate measures to minimize the storm's impact for our on-island visitors and has put the safety of our guests first.
We look forward to welcoming additional visitors to the Territory as early as this afternoon.
We thank all of our on-island partners, government agencies and our Caribbean neighbors for their prayers and support over the past few days.
Sincerely,
Beverly Nicholson-Doty
Commissioner
United States Virgin Islands Department of Tourism
Omar "threads the needle". It looks like most of the Virgin Islands and the northern Leeward Islands got very lucky as Omar went through the Anegada passage without the eye passing over any islands directly. Only the eastern tip of St. Croix received hurricane force winds. This was probably about the best path this storm could take -
HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008 500 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2008
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN PENETRATING THE EYE OF OMAR AND MEASURED A PRESSURE OF 959 MB AND TWO SPOT WINDS OF 132 AND 124 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL. THE CREW COULD NOT SAMPLE THE ENTIRE EYEWALL DUE TO EXTREMELY HIGH TURBULENCE. OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS OSCILLATED BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE DURING THAT TIME. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT OMAR REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS EARLIER. HOWEVER...SINCE THEN...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED AND HAS BECOME ASYMMETRIC. THE EYE IS NO LONGER DISTINCT ON IR IMAGES AND THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS RISEN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KNOTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS OR SO BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR OMAR TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS ENCOUNTERS STRONGER SHEAR. THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN 96 HOURS OR SOONER.
DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND RADAR FROM PUERTO RICO INDICATE THAT THE CORE OF OMAR WITH ITS STRONGEST WINDS CROSSED THE AREA OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BETWEEN ST. MAARTEN AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...OR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. OMAR HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 040 DEGREES AT 22 KNOTS AND SOON WILL CLEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE HURRICANE IS FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR ACCELERATION AND A CONTINUATION OF THE NORTHEAST MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
NEW YORK, Oct 15 (Reuters) - Hess Corp (HES.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) said on Wednesday it was shutting down the processing units at its 500,000 barrel per day joint-venture Hovensa refinery on St. Croix, in the U.S. Virgin Islands, ahead of Hurricane Omar which is expected to pass near or over the island overnight.
"To ensure the safety of our employees and the operation, HOVENSA L.L.C. is in the process of shutting down all processing and auxiliary equipment at its St. Croix refinery, except those necessary to maintain power supply in the complex," said Alex Moorhead, a spokesman for the refinery, which is jointly owned by Hess and Venezuela's state oil company.
Tropical Storm Omar scatters cruise ships in the Caribbean
Yet another tropical storm is forcing cruise ships in the Caribbean to change itineraries.
Carnival says a strengthening Tropical Storm Omar has forced the Carnival Triumph to switch course this week from the Eastern Caribbean to the Western Caribbean.
HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008 1100 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2008
ON ITS FINAL LEG AROUND 11Z...AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A PEAK SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 70 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF OMAR'S EYEWALL. THIS WAS COINCIDENT WITH A NEARBY DROPSONDE SURFACE WIND VALUE OF 68 KT...SO THE INTENSITY AT THE 12Z SYNOPTIC TIME WAS INCREASED TO 70 KT. HOWEVER...SINCE THE LAST RECON FLIGHT...THE EYE HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND ALSO IN THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DATA AT A RANGE OF MORE THAN 200 NMI. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75 KT BASED ON THE IMPROVED SATELLITE AND RADAR SIGNATURES.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/08. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR PHILOSOPHY. OMAR IS BASICALLY ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...OMAR IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE DEEPENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A PIECE OF THE TROUGH BREAKS OFF AND LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST IN 72-96 HOURS...WHICH BRIEFLY WEAKENS THE STEERING FLOW. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE OMAR TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 35-40 KT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
NOW THAT A DISTINCT EYE AND EYEWALL HAVE DEVELOPED...A GOOD CHIMNEY EFFECT CAN BE ESTABLISHED AND OMAR COULD GO THROUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AGAIN. ONLY THE GFDL MODEL IS CALLING FOR OMAR TO STRENGTHEN TO AT LEAST 90 KT. THE REMAINDER OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HOLDS OMAR BELOW 80 KT. BASED ON THE BETTER DEFINED EYE FEATURE...AND THE FACT THAT OMAR IS A RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER 29C AND WARMER SSTS...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION SIMILAR TO THE GFDL MODEL SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE. IT ALSO ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT OMAR COULD ACHIEVE MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS JUST BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE RAPID ENCROACHMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY PRECLUDES EXPLICITLY FORECASTING THAT INTENSITY AT THIS TIME SINCE THAT DRY AIR COULD MAKE IT INTO THE INNER CORE REGION IN 12-18 HOURS AND WEAKEN THE HURRICANE.
ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER EAST OF PUERTO RICO...ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE CURRENT MOTION COULD REQUIRE CHANGING THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THAT ISLAND. ALSO...STRONGER WINDS...POSSIBLY ONE CATEGORY HIGHER...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 500 FT ELEVATION.
HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008 1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008
THERE HAVE BEEN NO ADDITIONAL RECONNAISSANCE DATA THIS EVENING... HOWEVER SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT OMAR HAS BECOME A HURRICANE. A NEARLY COMPLETE EYEWALL HAS BEEN SEEN AT TIMES ON THE CURACAO RADAR...AND OMAR HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A LARGE AREA OF VERY COLD CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER ALL DAY. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 00Z WERE BOTH T4.0...OR 65 KT. IN ADDITION... THE CIMSS ADT IS RUNNING AROUND T4.5...AND A RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS 66 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...AND ALL THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE FORECASTS OMAR TO STRENGTHEN TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE IT EXITS THE CARIBBEAN. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES A 60% CHANCE OF 30 KT OR MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE...BUT IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND VERY CLOSE TO THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
BASED ON THE RADAR IMAGERY THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/5. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE HWRF AND GFDL CONTINUE TO LIE ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET ON THE RIGHT...BUT THE MODEL SPREAD IS NOT LARGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THIS TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL CLUSTER.
MIAMI (AP) -- Hurricane Omar is slowly moving northeast, a day after drenching islands in the southeastern Caribbean.
Hurricane warnings have been issued for the U.S. Virgin islands, Puerto Rico's Vieques and Culebra islands and other islands in the region.
Officials in Puerto Rico, already soaked from several days of rain, are warning residents to prepare for a lot more.
Omar's maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 kph) early Wednesday. But the National Hurricane Center in Miami says the hurricane is expected to strengthen.
SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (AP) -- Tropical Storm Omar drenched islands in the southeastern Caribbean on Tuesday, downing trees and blowing off part of a school's roof as it menaced U.S. islands.
Officials in Puerto Rico warned residents of the U.S. Caribbean territory, already soaked from several days of rain, to prepare for lots more. Medical authorities appealed for blood donations for possible casualties of the storm.
Omar's expected path could take it over Puerto Rico overnight Wednesday, or it could drift further east over the nearby U.S. and British Virgin Islands.
This is not looking good for the Virgin Islands - the storm is now much more powerful than was forecast just this morning:
TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008 500 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008
SATELLITE...RADAR...AND AIR FORCE RECON DATA INDICATE THAT OMAR HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OBSERVED HAVE ONLY BEEN 63 KT...RELIABLE SFMR SURFACE WIND DATA HAVE BEEN AS HIGH 57-60 KT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE LOWEST CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A DROPSONDE WAS 986 MB...BUT THE SURFACE WIND WAS 46 KT. THEREFORE... THE PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 982 MB AND THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO A CONSERVATIVE 60 KT. OMAR CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED IN BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS OF -80C TO -87C PERSIST OVER AND NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ON THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF OMAR...THE FLIGHT CREW REPORTED A 10-15 NMI DIAMETER EYE WAS FORMING. OUTFLOW ALSO CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND EXPAND IN ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT TO THE NORTHWEST WHERE IT IS SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED.
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SOME TOPS TO -86C NEAR THE CENTER. OUTFLOW HAS ALSO IMPROVED IN ALL QUADRANTS AND IS LESS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST NOW. THE INITIAL ADVISORY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT SATELLITE ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND SAB FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS...PLUS SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 30-34 KT QUIKSCAT WIND VECTORS NOTED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AROUND 1036Z THIS MORNING. THUS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM OMAR.
Geat a FREE, no obligation quote for travel insurance - click here!
email notifications
